EMBER Skeptics is dedicated to helping make truly effective and practical fire safety a reality in Berkeley
Fire SAFETY Through Solid SCIENCE
WE ALL WANT TO BE SAFE
Berkeley's EMBER Skeptics absolutely agree that we need to prepare our homes for fire, but it’s how we get there that’s essential.
REALITY BASED RESILIENCE
First and foremost we need to base our plans on peer-reviewed science. Science that includes addressing the vulnerabilities of our dense urban neighborhood and not mistakenly treating it like a forest.
OUR YARDS ARE NOT A FOREST*
Unfortunately, Berkeley’s EMBER law treats us that way. The City's February 2025 staff report backed its vegetation mandate with seven footnotes. Two were links to organization websites — not studies. The other five examined tree plantations in Australia and Portugal, and open range land. Not one looked at a five-foot vegetation zone in a dense urban neighborhood like ours.
SHACK-BURNING THEATER
The City also uses insurance industry (Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety - IBHS) engineering lab demos to vilify vegetation - the most famous a study in wood mulch ignition. IBHS' chief engineer acknowledges that IBHS has yet to scientifically study the impact of vegetation selection in Zone Zero.
OVER A YEAR OF EXPERT ANALYSIS
We've spent over a year attending the UCLA Sustainability Department’s Defensible Space Working Group meetings, where some of the state's leading fire scientists present and take questions — including scientists that Berkeley cites as authorities. In those meetings, we've heard:
—IBHS's chief engineer, Ann Cope, says that their vegetation demonstrations aren't science experiments — they're outreach
—Fire scientist Jack Cohen - respected “father of Zone 0” - say that well-maintained vegetation and trees are not the problem: it’s dead, dying, combustibles, like mulch, igniting and attacking unhardened homes
CURRENT COMPELLING EVIDENCE
The newest peer-reviewed urban conflagration research doesn't point where Berkeley's ordinance points, either. Studies of the actual January 2025 Los Angeles fires are finding that building density, not nearby vegetation, was the strongest predictor of which homes burned. And the insurance industry's research arm just added neighborhood-scale standards this June, after years of only testing single houses in isolation.
ZONE 0 STUDIES ARE EMERGING
The relevant science is moving toward structure spacing and home hardening - not removing healthy vegetation.
—Professor Kenny's recent: 1-3 % Zone 0 finding
"Using our model to simulate the removal of all canopy within two meters of a structure, slightly lowers the probability of loss relative to the average condition (3.4 pp for Eaton and 1 pp for Palisades).
Our results have important implications for urban forest management. They show that during large urban conflagrations, patterns of building density and arrangement play a far greater role in structure loss than the spatial distribution of urban vegetation. The small and inconsistent association of vegetation with structure loss observed in this study suggests that policies calling for the removal of urban canopy should be approached with caution and supported by further research."
“Urban trees and structure loss in the 2025 Eaton and Palisades fires.”
Kenny, R., Johns, J., Pawlak, C., Fricker, A., Yost, J., and Ritter, M. (2026)
https://c3485f4c-a332-43b2-9d06-adbcac8805c1.usrfiles.com/ugd/c3485f_d9e3b98da5244a17bd1aae64b8de08f8.pdf
Our Dense Berkeley Hills Neighborhood
HOME HARDENING FOCUS & SUPPORT
Everyone agrees that home hardening can make a huge difference, but it’s expensive. We propose that Berkeley make the permit process less expensive. In addition, we propose that Berkeley channel funds away from enforcement and into subsidies to help the most vulnerable homes closest to Tilden Park meet home hardening building code standards (roofs, vents, eaves, windows, etc.)--changes that can help protect the entire WUI zone against wildfire spread.
ENOUGH TIME IS ESSENTIAL
Berkeley should adopt the State's proposed 3-5 year zone zero compliance timeline, instead of maintaining its stricter 60-day to citation procedure. That 3-5 year timeline is beneficial for two reasons: it lets the science keep developing solid evidence instead of locking us into today's incomplete picture, and it gives communities and families time to acquire grant money and budget for the cost instead of facing an expensive mandate on a compressed schedule. It also allows time to raise awareness about lead-contaminated soil and promote safe handling.
WHERE IS THE GUIDANCE ON LEAD POISONING?
In addition, EMBER may be exposing us to lead-contaminated soil without the proper precautions in place. There is only one mention of the potential for lead contaminated soil, buried within the Fire Department's Landscaping Guide. I discovered it AFTER digging within Zone 0 and subsequently tested high for lead.
THE RUSH IS FEEDING DIVISIVENESS
Despite the cheerful vegetation-removal event announcements from the City and FireWise groups, some of the messaging has pitted neighbors against each other. Nextdoor posts attempt to shame us into silence as selfish tree-hugging fools who won't listen to the fire department. The fear-inducing fire videos shown during presentations and workshops are lizard-brain distractions from rational thought. Instead of coming together to address the issues, we are split into camps. If or when a fire does break out in the community, I would hope that we could all work together on that day to survive without bitter feelings and finger-pointing.
OUR PROPOSAL
Align Berkeley with the same timeline the state's Board of Forestry is adopting — three years for the easier steps, five years for the harder ones — the same timeline the state decided was appropriate after more than a year of hearings and presentations following the devastating urban conflagrations in Los Angeles. And also use fire fighting funds for strategically placed home hardening instead of enforcement. Lastly, raise awareness in the community that the soil surrounding their home may be contaminated with lead due to years of lead paint use and to take proper precautions if disturbing it - including effectively covering it later. Subsidized soil testing would help also.
RECONVENE THE WUI WORKGROUP
Both Councilmember Brent Blackaby and WUI Fire Chief Colin Arnold have publicly stated that once the state had settled on
its Zone 0 rule code that Berkeley could revisit the EMBER law. Last November Arnold even outlined the unfinished business of the WUI Workgroup in a letter to City Council, suggesting the work be finished.
WE CAN DO THIS TOGETHER
This isn't about being against fire safety - we all agree we need to be prepared. It's about wanting fire safety that's actually built on solid evidence and defined in a way that can partner with homeowners: giving them time and meaningful financial support to enact effective measures, rather than enforce through punitive measures and pit neighbors against each other. The state is trying to do that. If Berkeley wants to lead the way, it can: being the first to craft law that helps protect urban neighborhoods and provides meaningful support for home hardening.
EMBER Skeptics is dedicated to helping make truly effective and practical fire safety a reality in Berkeley.